Vagadziri vanotungamira vememory chips vari kushanda nesimba kuti vakunde chando chinotonhora.Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix neMicron vari kudzikisa kugadzirwa, kugadzirisa matambudziko ekutenga, kuchengetedza mari yekushandisa, uye kunonoka kufambira mberi kwehunyanzvi hwepamusoro kubata nekusasimba kudiwa kwendangariro."Tiri munguva yekuderera kwepurofiti".Musi waGumiguru 27, Samsung Electronics yakaudza vanoisa mari pamusangano wechitatu wekota wezvemari kuti, nekuwedzera, nhamba yekambani yakawedzera nekukurumidza mukota yechitatu.
Memory ibazi repamusoro-soro remusika we semiconductor, ine nzvimbo yemusika inenge 160 mabhiriyoni emadhora muna 2021. Inogonawo kuonekwa kwose kwose mune zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi.Icho chigadzirwa chakamisikidzwa chakakura zvakanyanya mumusika wepasirese.Iyo indasitiri ine pachena periodicity ine shanduko mune hesera, kudiwa, uye kugona.Kugadzirwa uye purofiti yevagadziri inoshanduka zvakanyanya nekuchinja kwe cyclical kweindasitiri.
Zvinoenderana netsvagiridzo yeTrendForce Jibang Consulting, mwero wekukura kwemusika weNAND muna 2022 uchangova 23.2%, inova ndiyo yakaderera kukura mumakore masere apfuura;Kukura kweyeuko (DRAM) ingori 19%, uye inotarisirwa kuramba ichidzika kusvika 14.1% muna 2023.
Jeffrey Mathews, muongorori mukuru wenharembozha chikamu tekinoroji masevhisi kuStrategy Analytics, akaudza vatori venhau kuti kuwandisa kwemusika kwafambisa zvakanyanya kuderera, chiri zvakare chikonzero chikuru chemitengo yakaderera yeDRAM neNAND.Muna 2021, vagadziri vachange vaine tarisiro nezvekuwedzera kwekugadzira.NAND neDRAM zvichange zvichiri kushomeka.Sezvo divi rekudiwa parinotanga kudzikira muna 2022, musika unozove wakawandisa.Imwe SK Hynix yakati mugwaro rayo rechitatu rezvemari kuti kudiwa kweDRAM neNAND zvigadzirwa kwaive nehusimbe, uye kutengesa nemitengo zvakaderera.
Sravan Kundojjala, director wenharembozha chikamu tekinoroji masevhisi eStrategy Analytics, akaudza vatori venhau kuti kuderera kwekupedzisira kwakaitika muna 2019, apo mari nekushandiswa kwemari yezvidyarwa zvese zvekurangarira kwakadzikira zvakanyanya, uye musika usina kusimba wakagara zvikamu zviviri muzvina usati wabuda.Pane zvimwe zvakafanana pakati pa2022 na2019, asi panguva ino kugadziridzwa kunoratidzika kunge kwakanyanya.
VaJeffrey Mathews vakati kutenderera uku kwakakanganiswawo nekuderera kwekuda, kuderera kwehupfumi uye kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika.Iko kudiwa kwemafoni uye maPC, iwo maviri madhiraivha makuru ekurangarira kwemakore mazhinji, haana simba zvakanyanya uye anotarisirwa kugara kusvika 2023.
Samsung Electronics yakati kune nharembozha, kudiwa kungangoramba kuine kushaya simba uye kunonoka muhafu yekutanga yegore rinouya, uye kuvimba kwevatengi kucharamba kwakadzikira pasi pesimba remwaka kushaya simba.Kune PC, iyo hesitori yakaunganidzwa nekuda kwekutengesa kwakaderera ichave yapera muhafu yekutanga yegore rinouya, uye inogona kuona kupora kwakanyanya mukudiwa.Iyo kambani icharamba ichitarisa kana iyo macro-economy inogona kudzikama muhafu yechipiri yegore rinouya uye zviratidzo zvekupora kwemaindasitiri.
Sravan Kundojjala akataura kuti data data, mota, indasitiri, hungwaru hwekugadzira uye network minda inopa vanopa ndangariro nekukura kweramangwana.Micron, SK Hynix uye Samsung Electronics vese vakataura nezvekubuda kwevamwe vatyairi vatsva muchikamu chechitatu chemari mishumo: nzvimbo dzedata uye maseva anozova anotevera akasimba ekutyaira mumusika wekurangarira.
High inventory
Chishandiso chemagetsi chakakosha chinosanganisira anotevera masisitimu, masensa, processors, ndangariro uye actuators.Iyo ndangariro inobata basa rekuyeuka ruzivo, iro rinogona kukamurwa kuita ndangariro (DRAM) uye flash memory (NAND) zvinoenderana nerudzi rwechigadzirwa.Iyo yakajairika chigadzirwa fomu yeDRAM inonyanya ndangariro module.Flash inogona kuonekwa kwese kwese muhupenyu, kusanganisira microSD kadhi, U disk, SSD (solid state disk), nezvimwe.
Musika wekurangarira wakanyanya kutariswa.Zvinoenderana neWorld Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organisation (WSTS) data, Samsung, Micron uye SK Hynix pamwe chete account ye94% yemusika weDRAM.MuNAND Flash field, Samsung, Armor Man, SK Hynix, Western Digital, Micron uye Intel pamwe chete account inoita 98%.
Sekureva kweTrendForce Jibang yekubvunza data, mitengo yeDRAM yadonha kubva pakutanga kwegore, uye mutengo wechibvumirano muhafu yechipiri ya2022 uchadonha kupfuura gumi muzana kota yega yega.Mitengo yeNAND inodzikiswa zvakare.Muchikamu chechitatu, kuderera kwakawedzera kubva pa15-20% kusvika 30-35%.
Musi waGumiguru 27, Samsung Electronics yakaburitsa mhedzisiro yayo yekota yechitatu, izvo zvakaratidza kuti semiconductor (DS) dhipatimendi rinotarisira bhizinesi rechip raive nemari ye23.02 trillion yakahwina mukota yechitatu, yakaderera pane tarisiro yevanoongorora.Mari yedhipatimendi rinotarisira bhizinesi rekuchengetedza yaive 15.23 trillion yakahwina, pasi 28% mwedzi pamwedzi uye 27% gore pagore.Samsung Electronics inosanganisira semiconductors, midziyo yemumba, mapaneru uye mafoni.
Iyo kambani yakataura kuti kushaya simba kwendangariro kwakavhara maitiro ari kusimukira ekuita kwese.Iyo yese gross profit margin yakadzikira ne2.7%, uye purofiti yekushandisa yakadzikirawo ne4.1 percent kusvika 14.1%.
Musi waGumiguru 26, mari yeSK Hynix muchikamu chechitatu yaive 10.98 trillion yakahwina, uye purofiti yayo yekushanda yaive 1.66 tiririyoni yakahwina, nekutengesa uye kushanda purofiti inodonha 20.5% uye 60.5% mwedzi pamwedzi zvichiteerana.Musi waGunyana 29, Micron, imwe fekitori hombe, yakaburitsa chirevo chezvemari chechikamu chechina cha2022 (Chikumi Nyamavhuvhu 2022).Mari yaro yaingove US $ 6.64 bhiriyoni, pasi 23% mwedzi pamwedzi uye 20% gore pagore.
Samsung Electronics yakataura kuti zvikonzero zvikuru zvekushaiwa kudiwa ndeyezvino zvinoramba zvichinetsa macro uye iyo inventory gadziriso vatengi vari kusangana nayo, iyo yakakura kupfuura yaitarisirwa.Iyo kambani yakaona kuti musika wainetsekana nepamusoro peyero yezviwanikwa nekuda kwekushaya simba kwezvigadzirwa zvendangariro.
Samsung Electronics yakati yaiedza kubata nhanho yayo kusvika padanho rakaenzana.Uyezve, chiyero chemazuva ano chekutsvaga hachichagoni kutongwa nemitemo yakapfuura, nokuti vatengi vari kusangana nekutenderera kwekugadzirisa, uye chiyero chekugadzirisa chakapfuura zvinotarisirwa.
Jeffrey Mathews akataura kuti munguva yakapfuura, vachisundwa nekufamba kwenguva kwemusika wekuchengetedza, vagadziri vakamhanya kuzadzisa kudzoreredzwa kwekuda uye kuwedzera kuburitsa.Nekuderedzwa kwekuda kwevatengi, kupa kwacho kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma.Iye zvino vari kutarisana nematambudziko avo ekugadzira zvinhu.
Meguiar Chiedza akataura kuti vangangove vese vatengi vakuru mumusika wekupedzisira vari kugadzirisa zvigadziriso.Sravan Kundojjala akaudza vatori venhau kuti pari zvino, vamwe vatengesi vari kusaina zvibvumirano zvenguva refu nevatengi, vachitarisira kudzikisa zvigadzirwa zvakapedzwa muzvinyorwa, uye zvakare vari kuyedza kuita kuti inventory igone kutsiviwa kuenzanisa chero shanduko mukuda.
Conservative strategy
"Isu tagara tichisimbisa kukwidziridzwa kwemitengo kuita kuti chimiro chemitengo ive nani kupfuura chero mukwikwidzi, inova nzira yekusimbisa pundutso pari zvino".Samsung Electronics inotenda kuti zvigadzirwa zvine mutengo elasticity, iyo inogona kushandiswa kugadzira zvekugadzira zvimwe zvinodiwa.Zvechokwadi, mhedzisiro yacho ishoma, uye iyo yose mutengo maitiro haisati yadzoreka.
SK Hynix yakataura pamusangano wechitatu wekota yezvemari kuti kuitira kukwirisa mitengo, kambani yakaedza kuvandudza huwandu hwekutengesa uye goho rezvigadzirwa zvitsva muchikamu chechitatu, asi kudzikiswa kwemutengo kwakapinza kwakapfuura mutengo wakaderedzwa, uye purofiti yekushanda zvakare. akaramba.
Sekureva kweTrendForce Jibang yekubvunza data, ndangariro yakabuda yeSamsung Electronics, SK Hynix uye Micron yakangochengeta 12-13% kukura gore rino.Muna 2023, kubuda kweSamsung Electronics kuchadzikira ne8%, SK Hynix ne6.6%, uye Micron ne4.3%.
Mafekitari akakura anongwarira pakushandisa mari nekuwedzera kugadzirwa.SK Hynix yakati gore rinouya mari yekushandisa ichaderera neinopfuura 50% gore pagore, uye gore rino mari inotarisirwa kunge iri 10-20 trillion yakahwina.Micron akati zvakare ichadzikisa zvakanyanya mari yayo yekushandisa mugore remari 2023 uye kuderedza huwandu hwekushandiswa kwezvidyarwa zvekugadzira.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting yakati maererano nendangariro, zvichienzaniswa neSamsung Electronics 'Q4 2023 uye Q4 2022 zvirongwa zvekudyara, zvidimbu makumi mana chete zvichawedzerwa pakati;SK Hynix yakawedzera 20000 mafirimu, ukuwo Meguiar aive pakati nepakati, aine mamwe mafirimu mazana mashanu chete.Mukuwedzera, vagadziri vaitanga kuvaka zvidyarwa zvitsva zvekuyeuka.Parizvino, kufambira mberi kwezvirimwa kuri kufambira mberi, asi maitiro ese anoverengerwa.
Samsung Electronics ine tarisiro pamusoro pekuwedzera kwekugadzira.Kambani iyi yakati icharamba ichichengetedza mwero wakakodzera wekudyara kwezvivakwa kuti zvigadzirise kudiwa kwepakati-uye kwenguva refu, asi kudyara kwayo mumidziyo kuchawedzera kushanduka.Kunyangwe iko kudiwa kwemusika kuri kudzikira, kambani inofanirwa kugadzirira kudzoreredza kudiwa munguva yepakati uye kwenguva refu kubva pamaonero ehurongwa, saka kambani haizodzikisire zvigadzirwa kuti isangane nenguva pfupi yekupihwa uye yekuda chiyero.
Jeffrey Mathews akati kudzikiswa kwekushandisa uye kubuda kuchakanganisawo kutsvagisa nekuvandudzwa kwehunyanzvi hwepamusoro hwevagadziri, uye kukurumidza kwekukwira kune manode epamusoro kuchaderera, saka kudzikiswa kwebit cost (bit cost) kuchadererawo.
Kutarisira gore rinouya
Vagadziri vakasiyana vanotsanangura musika wekurangarira zvakasiyana.Zvinoenderana neiyo terminal division, iwo matatu ekutyaira masimba endangariro mafoni akangwara, maPC uye maseva.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting inofanotaura kuti chikamu chemusika wekurangarira kubva kumaseva chichakura kusvika pamakumi matatu nenhanhatu muzana muna 2023, padyo nekugovaniswa kwenharembozha.Iyo mbozha ndangariro inoshandiswa kunharembozha ine nzvimbo shoma yakakwira, inogona kudzikiswa kubva payakatangira 38.5% kusvika 37.3%.Zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi zvevatengi mumusika weflash memory zvichange zvisisina kusimba, nemafoni ekuchenjera achikura ne2.8% uye malaptop achidonha ne8-9%.
Liu Jiahao, maneja wekutsvagisa weJibang Consulting, akataura pa "2022 Jibang Consulting Semiconductor Summit uye Storage Industry Summit" musi waGumiguru 12 kuti kusimudzira kwekuyeuka kunogona kukamurwa kuita akati wandei akakosha masimba ekutyaira, anotungamirwa nemalaptops kubva 2008 kusvika 2011;Muna 2012, nemukurumbira wemidziyo yakangwara yakadai senharembozha uye mahwendefa, uye ichityairwa neInternet, zvishandiso izvi zvakatsiva malaptop sesimba guru rekutyaira rekudhonza ndangariro;Munguva ye2016-2019, mashandisirwo eInternet akawedzera kuwedzera, maseva uye nzvimbo dzedata dzakave dzakanyanya kukosha sedhijitari dhijitari, uye kuchengetedza kwakatanga kuve nekukurudzira kutsva.
Jeffrey Mathews akataura kuti denderedzwa rekupedzisira rekudonha kwendangariro kwakaitika muna 2019, nekuti kudiwa kwemafoni, musika mukuru wekupedzisira, kwakadzikira.Panguva iyoyo, cheni yekugovera yakaunganidza huwandu hukuru hwezvinhu, kudiwa kwevagadziri vemafoni akangwara kwakaramba, uye NAND neDRAM ASP (avhareji yekutengesa mutengo) yemafoni akangwara zvakare yakaona kudzikira kwenhamba mbiri.
Liu Jiahao akataura kuti mukati menguva kubva muna 2020 kusvika 2022, mamiriro edenda, shanduko yedhijitari, kushaya simba kwemagetsi evatengi uye zvimwe zvinhu zvakasiyana zvakaonekwa, uye kudiwa kweindasitiri kweyakanyanya kusimba komputa kwakasimba kupfuura kare.Yakawanda Internet uye vagadziri veIT vakaisa nzvimbo dzedata, izvo zvakafambisawo zvishoma nezvishoma kukura kwedhijitari kune gore.Kudiwa kwekuchengetedza maseva kuchave kwakajeka.Kunyangwe iyo yazvino musika mugove ichiri diki, iyo data data uye maseva anozova madhiraivha akakosha emusika wekuchengetera mukati uye kwenguva refu.
Samsung Electronics ichawedzera zvigadzirwa zvemaseva uye data data muna 2023. Samsung Electronics yakati, tichifunga nezvekudyara mune zvakakosha zvivakwa zvakaita seAI ne5G, kudiwa kwezvigadzirwa zveDRAM kubva kumaseva zvicharamba zvakagadzikana gore rinouya.
Sravan Kundojjala akataura kuti vatengesi vazhinji vanoda kudzikisa kutarisisa kwavo paPC uye misika ye smartphone.Panguva imwecheteyo, data data, mota, indasitiri, hungwaru hwekugadzira uye network minda inovapa mikana yekukura.
Jeffrey Mathews akataura kuti nekuda kwekuenderera mberi kwekurangarira tekinoroji kuenda kunzvimbo dzepamusoro, kuita kweNAND neDRAM zvigadzirwa zvinotarisirwa kuzadzisa chizvarwa chinotevera kusvetuka.Zvinotarisirwa kuti kudiwa kwemisika yakakosha yekupedzisira senge data center, zvishandiso uye edge computing ichakura zvakanyanya, saka vatengesi vari kutyaira yavo yekurangarira chigadzirwa portfolio.Mukufamba kwenguva, zvinotarisirwa kuti vanopa ndangariro vanozongwarira mukuwedzera hunyanzvi uye kuchengetedza kuomarara kwekupa uye kuranga kwemitengo.
Nguva yekutumira: Nov-08-2022